Faces of Local Officialdom Destined to Change Radically in Near Future
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Many questions surround local political arena
After years of relative calm on the local political front, clouds are forming and a storm appears to be in the offing.
The storm will sweep out familiar figures and new personalities will come into focus in the aftermath.
The first shift is coming on quickly. District Judge Craig Alston has already announced his retirement, effective in two weeks. He's going to Portland, Oregon, to operate a computer company.
Word on the street is that several other local posts will see new faces:
District Judge Scott Newcombe is said to be preparing for retirement;
So is Circuit Judge William Caprathe.
State Rep. Jeff Mayes is considered to be the leading candidate to replace State Sen. James A. Barcia since both are term-limited in their present posts.
Rep. Mayes is raising his profile among labor and business groups alike and has grabbed considerable clout in Lansing as chair of the House Energy and Technology Committee. As such, he has been at the forefront on discussions on the proposed local Consumers plant as well as alternative energy initiatives.
Barcia's future plans are a mystery but the highly-connected and capable former Member of Congress, who was redistricted out of a job in the late 1990s, is thought to be a prime candidate should an elective or appointive post in Washington become available.
Former Republican legislator Bill Ballenger, who writes a popular newsletter "Inside Michigan Politics," has speculated that 2012 redistricting could put Bay County in the district of current Midland area Rep. Dave Camp, a Republican.
As far as Congressional redistricting is concerned, everything will depend on whether Democrats or Republicans control the majority of seats in the Michigan Legislature in the 2010 election. Right now the majority of seats in the state House are held by Democrats, 67-43, while the Senate is in GOP control 21-16, but political trends could be volatile in 2010.
The 2010 Census is expected to show further populations declines in Michigan, perhaps leading to loss of another Congressional seat. That would bring the total down to 14, the lowest in 80 years.
Right now the lineup is 15, eight Democrats and seven Republicans. Bay County is represented by Dale Kildee with most of the southern portion of the county and Bart Stupak with much of the sparsely populated northern area.
Kildee, 80, a former school teacher, state representative and state senator, has served 17 consecutive terms in Congress since his election in 1976. He has given no indication he is even thinking about retiring from Congress.
Bay City Mayor Charles Brunner and Bay County Commissioner Brian Elder are jousting gingerly for the Democratic nomination to succeed Mayes. County voters, with the most heavily populated suburban townships of Bangor, Monitor and Hampton, may be the key to this match-up, some observers conclude.
County Commissioner Dawn Klida and Jennifer Barnes, an aide to Sen. Barcia, reportedly are among leading candidates for appointment by the governor to Alston's district court judgeship. The new judge will join judges Tim Kelly, whose term expires in 2013, and Newcombe, whose term expires in 2011.
The feeling among insiders is that Bay County is ripe for addition of a woman to the local district or circuit bench since the last to serve here was district judge Marian Manary several decades ago. Probate (Family Court) Judge Karen Tighe has been a stalwart in that office since Paul Doner retired in 1994. Judge Tighe was Bay County's first female Probate judge.
Several other attorneys are said to be eying an election run for the district judgeship when it comes up in the 2010 primary.
The next county-wide election is not until the state primary of August 2010, some 10 months away. But expect to see increased political activity in the run-up to that voting as hopefuls jockey for position.
Bumper stickers are popping up for Attorney General Mike Cox as Republican candidate for governor; Lt. Gov. John Cherry has been positioning himself for a run for some time and waiting in the wings is reputed Independent candidate Andy Dillon.
Now Speaker of the House, Dillon has gotten cross-ways with the traditional Democratic power brokers by espousing relatively conservative issues like pooling health care for state employees, a plan that has not drawn favor in some union circles.
Dillon scored heavy points recently by showing up at a Lansing labor-business rally in favor of building the proposed Consumers Energy plant in Essexville.
Meanwhile, Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Lt. Gov. Cherry disappointed rally goers, including three busloads from Bay City, by not even peeking their noses out of the capitol to say hello.
A maverick Dillon run for governor may catch the fancy of the Michigan voting public, some observers theorize, as Cox will likely find prominent media coverage of his actions, or lack thereof, in the Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick sex for text-message and Manoogian mansion dancer murder scandals.
Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, with Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land as running mate, could be positioned to turn the governor's office back to the Republicans. Voters disenchanted with the economic condition of Michigan may be ready for a change, observers theorize.
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