President Obama (left) and Debbie Stabenow. Stabenow Would Have Tough Time in Michigan in 2012, Obama Not So Much
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Although President Obama in strong shape to win Michigan again in 2012, U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow may need a boost to be re-elected herself. She leads every Republican tested against her, but all but one within the margin of error.
The Raleigh, North Carolina firm Public Opinion Polling has released recent polls testing both Obama and Stabenow. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty can only muster 43 percent to Obama's 51 percent, which essentially mirrors the governor's 43-53 job approval rating as he prepares to leave office.
Meanwhile, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, a Michigan native, holds Obama to 47 percent and gets 42 percent himself. Mike Huckabee lags, 40-50; Newt Gingrich, 38-51; and Sarah Palin, brings up the rear, 36-54.
Voters are split on Stabenow's performance in office, 41 percent approving and 40 percent disapproving, but only two of her opponents are more popular.
Tenth-District Congresswoman Candice Miller and Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land both post strong 36-21 favorability ratings, though 43 percent are still unaware of either.
Miller's internals are unusual in that 34-39 percent of each partisan group has a positive opinion of her, and she is more popular with independents than with members of her own party. Land is also well liked by independents and almost breaks even with Democrats.
Former congressman Pete Hoekstra, who failed in his primary bid for governor this year, has a 28-31 mark, while former governor John Engler stands at 33-45. The candidate who's showed the most interest in running so far, businessman Tim Leuliette, is unsurprisingly a non-entity to 81 percent of the electorate.
Despite not being the best liked of the four major potential candidates, Hoekstra does the best against Stabenow, trailing her only 44-45. Miller nearly matches him, down only 41-43. Stabenow tops Land, 45-41; Engler, 49-42; and Leuliette, 47-30.
Except against the unknown Leuliette, Stabenow does not have an overwhelming party unity advantage, unlike President Obama -- in fact, she even narrowly trails Engler and Hoekstra in that department. But she does win independents against all five Republicans.
Because of her favor with independents personally, Miller holds Stabenow to only a 39-36 advantage with unaffiliated voters, but that opens up to 43-33 over Land, 47-37 over Hoekstra, 54-35 over Engler, and 48-14 over Leuliette. With Stabenow and the Republicans generally all locking up their respective bases, independents are the story explaining the varying margins.
"If the election were today, Debbie Stabenow would probably win re-election, but if the Republicans field a strong challenger, this has the potential to be a very competitive race," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,224 Michigan voters from December 3rd to 6th. The survey's margin of error is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
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Dave Rogers |
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