State Sen. Mike Goschka, left, and political pundit Bill Ballenger, jawbone at the Tri County Economic Club at Saginaw Valley State University recently. Get Instant Updated Election Results on MyBayCity.com
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Not even experienced political pundits are willing to predict who will win the Presidency on Tuesday. Or even who will lead the ticket in Michigan.
Bill Ballenger, probably the state's top political pundit, was here this week and threw out a blizzard of statistics but ducked the big question about who will win the Presidency.
He noted that Michigan voters Tuesday face the nation's largest number of choices, about 8,000 from township to state boards of education and judgeships.
Mr. Ballenger, a well-connected former Republican legislator who publishes the "Inside Michigan Politics" newsletter, brought his expertise from Lansing to the Tri County Economics Club this week.
Mr. Ballenger ducked a prediction on the Michigan winner of the Presidential race, but pointed to a new poll from East Lansing by Steve Mitchell Research that showed Bush overtaking Kerry recently. Several other polls have shown and continue to show Kerry consistently in the lead in Michigan by an average of nearly five points.
Mr. Ballenger noted that the Mitchell poll accurately predicted Al Gore's five point victory in Michigan four years ago. No Republican has been able to win Michigan since George H. Bush defeated Dukakis in 1988, he said.
He did venture: "Michigan will be a much closer race than apparently the national media thought it was going to be."
Some of Mr. Ballenger's main points:
You can't trust what you read in the newspapers.
Most incumbents at all levels will be re-elected.
Turnout will rule on Nov. 2 (however, less than 20 percent of qualified voters turned out in the August primary).
Coat-tails don't work anymore (in other words, a strong candidate atop the ticket doesn't bring his friends along to win also).
Democrats may win a few more seats in the Michigan House, but control will likely stay with the Republicans.
Likewise, Republicans will continue to control about two-thirds of county offices and 70 percent of township offices in Michigan.
Republicans also will retain their control of the Congressional delegation, achieved partially through creative gerrymandering two years ago, converting a 9-7 deficit into a 9-6 majority, according to Mr. Ballenger.
When the cash register stops ringing, advocates of Proposal 1, to ban more gambling games, will have spent more on advertising than either the Kerry or Bush campaigns individually have spent in Michigan, up to an unprecedented $30-40 million.
Proposal 2 is like the "crazy aunt in the attic -- nobody wants to talk about it," said Mr. Ballenger. And, not much money is being spent on the proposal, which seeks to ban gay marriage.
Both proposals may have over-reached a little, Mr. Ballenger said. The gambling ban included the lottery, and that gave Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Republican supporters a chance to attack it as dangerous to school funding. The governor really doesn't want the ban because it would stop so-call "racino" legislation allowing slot machines at racetracks that could help meet state budget shortfalls.
The gay marriage ban over-reached in that the state's universities, except Grand Valley, have domestic partner benefits already in place and those could be open for attack if the ban passes.###
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