Bay County Voters Casting Ballots for President 43rd Time Since 1836
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Tuesday will mark the 43rd time voters in Bay County have cast ballots for a President of the United States, but don't look for the local vote outcome to forecast the winner any more.
A record number of 79,888 persons are registered to vote in Bay County, a gain of 766 voters, or about a 9.5 percent increase, since the August primary election, according to Patty Shorkey, deputy county clerk. "They've been coming out of the woodwork for the past few months," she exclaimed.
County Clerk Cynthia A. Luczak expects at least 65 percent turnout, which would result in about 52,000 persons voting in Bay County. Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land estimates that 4.5 million will cast ballots in the state. Bay Countywould furnish about 1.15 percent of the total voters in the state.
MyBayCity.com checked 2003 U.S. Census estimates showing 82,637 residents of Bay County over the age of 18. The number registered here would therefore be 96.6 percent of voting age residents. Some voters who have died may remain on the rolls, which could reduce the potential voters by 1,000 or so, according to estimates based on the number of annual deaths.
Mrs. Luczak said she has been notified by the secretary of state that the possibility exists of an extension of the voting hours, which are traditionally 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. "They would have to obtain a court order to do that and we don't expect to hear whether that is necessary until about 6 p.m. Tuesday," said the county clerk.
Observers noted that an extension of voting hours would be unprecedented since voters in line at 8 p.m. have always been allowed to cast their ballots. The state is now under new laws providing for provisional voting for questionable registrants, a fact that could provide some new challenges for election officials. Bay County has been part of the Michigan Qualified Voter File since 1998. That file would be checked in cases where voters are not in the proper precinct or don't have up-to-date credentials.
As far as Presidential vote results, things are vastly changed since the period 1920 through 1964 when Bay County voted for the eventual winner of the Presidency every time. National pollsters often would call former Bay City Times managing editor Ray Kuhn here to see how the campaign was going, knowing the significance of trends here. Kuhn's main contact was noted pollster Sammy Lubell, the John Zogby of his time. It was said Bay County had the perfect blend of urban and rural voters, matching national demographics.
That string of 12 straight Presidential elections on the "right" side gave Bay County some positive notoriety that was dashed in 1968 when Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew won the White House but were trounced locally. The Hubert Humphrey/Ed Muskie Democratic ticket got 21,410 votes to 18,779 for the winning Republicans.
Bay County voters in 2000 gave the Democratic Al Gore/Joe Lieberman ticket 54.6 percent of the vote with a total of 28,251 while Republican winners George Bush and Dick Cheney got just 42.8 percent, or a total of 22,150. The Green Party's Ralph Nader and his running mate Winona LaDuke got 972 votes here, or about 1.9 percent of 51,950 votes cast.
Bay County has been "right" on the voting for President 28 times out of 42 Presidential elections since 1836, in other words giving a local majority of votes for the eventual winner.
However, the county has been "wrong" 14 times. Presidential winners George Bush in 2000, Richard Nixon in 1968, Woodrow Wilson in 1916, William McKinley in 1896, Benjamin Harrison in 1888, Rutherford B. Hayes in the infamous 1876 vote, Abraham Lincoln both times he ran, 1860 and 1864, Zachary Taylor in 1848, James Polk in 1844, and William Henry Harrison in 1840 all failed to win approval of Bay County voters.
Bay County results (*denotes winner) in Presidential elections, 1836-2000:
2000 - *Bush/Cheney, R, 22,150; Gore/Lieberman, D, 28,251;
1996 - Dole/Kemp, R, 16,038; *Clinton/Gore, D, 27,835;
1992 - Bush/Quayle, R, 16,383; *Clinton/Gore, D, 26,492;
1988 - *Bush/Quayle, R, 20,710; Dukakis/Bentsen, D, 28,225;
1984 - *Reagan/Bush, R, 28,198; Mondale/Ferraro, D, 22,597;
1980 - *Reagan/Bush, R, 25,331; Carter/Mondale, D, 24,517;
1976 - Ford/Dole, R, 23,174; *Carter/Mondale, D, 25,958;
1972 - *Nixon/Agnew, R, 23,094; McGovern/Shriver, D, 21,712;
1968 - *Nixon/Agnew, R, 18,779; Humphrey/Muskie, D, 21,410; Wallace/Griffin, Ind., 2,291;
1964 - Goldwater/Miller, R, 11,896; *Johnson/Humphrey, D, 29,754;
1960 - Nixon/Lodge, R, 20,909; *Kennedy/Johnson, D, 22,998;
1956 - *Eisenhower, R, 23,519; Stevenson, D, 15,301;
1952 - *Eisenhower, R, 20,087; Stevenson, D, 14,113;
1948 - Dewey, R, 13,321; *Truman, D, 14,349;
1944 - Dewey, R, 15,459; *Roosevelt, D, 15,602;
1940 - Willkie, R, 14,618; *Roosevelt, D, 14,902;
1936 - Landon, R, 8,729; *Roosevelt, D, 13,789; Lemke, 3rd, 2,292;
1932 - Hoover, R, 9,816; *Roosevelt, D, 14,708; Thomas, Socialist, 545;
1928 - *Hoover, R, 12,467; Smith, D, 9,395;
1924 - *Coolidge, R, 14,861; Davis, D, 5,881; LaFollette, Ind., 1,991;
1920 - *Harding, R, 13,393; Cox, D, 7,011;
1916 - Hughes, R, 6,708; *Wilson, D, 5,996;
1912 - Roosevelt, NP, 4,748; Taft, R, 2,625; *Wilson, D, 2,990; Debs, S, 521;
1908 - *Taft, R, 6,760; Bryan, D, 4,223; Debs, S, 403;
1904 - *Roosevelt, R, 7,609; Parker, D, 3,142; Debs, S, 76;
1900 - *McKinley, R, 6,462; Bryan, D, 5,081; Wooley, Prohibition, 233;
1896 - *McKinley, R, 6,037; Bryan, D, 6,296;
1892 - Harrison, R, 4,587; *Cleveland, D, 5,714;
1888 - *Harrison, R, 4,378; Cleveland, D, 5,714;
1884 - Blaine, R, 2,916; *Cleveland, Fusion, 4,963; Cleveland, D, 3,436;
1880 - *Garfield, R, 2,404; Hancock, D, 2,068; Weaver, Greenback, 1,734;
1876 - *Hayes, R, 2,407; Tilden, D, 2,840;
1872 - *Grant, R, 1,948; Greeley, Democrat/Labor, 1,270;
1868 - *Grant, R, 2,923; Seymour, D, 1,557;
1864 - *Lincoln, R, 462; McLellan, D, 584;
1860 - *Lincoln, R, 311; Douglas, D, 324;
1856 - Fremont, R, 1,042; *Buchanan, D, 1,222;
1852 - Scott, Whig, 367; *Pierce, D, 694; Hale, Free Soil, 73;
1848 - *Taylor, W, 118; Cass, D, 183; Van Buren, FS, 47;
1844 - Clay, W, 107; *Polk, D, 104; Birney, Liberty, nil;
1840 - *Harrison, W, 89; Van Buren, D, 100; Birney, L, nil;
1836 -Harrison, W, nil; *Van Buren, D, 165.###
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