Will Federal Agency Probe Derail Chevy Volt, Stall Michigan Recovery?
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Will safety concerns about electric cars explode Michigan's amazing economic growth spurt?
Despite the Obama administration's goal of more than a million electric vehicles on the road by 2015, a federal safety agency has announced what appears to be a damaging fishing expedition.
I say that because the fire in the electric battery in the May 12 test cited did not occur for three weeks! And there have been no reports of road accidents causing fires in electric vehicles.
And, dare I state it: why is just the Volt being targeted? What about tests of the Prius or other electric vehicles? I don't question the integrity of the NHTSA Volt test but the political and economic implications are massive.
The announcement of the investigation alone is probably sufficient to create doubt in prospective buyer's minds about the Chevy Volt, said to be a slow seller anyway.
Joann Muller, Forbes magazine auto writer, predicted one catastrophic incident could set the entire industry back 10 years if the public loses confidence in electric technology. She wrote that the public is far from ready to accept electric vehicles, especially since many gasoline powered cars get 40 miles per gallon.
GM has moved to limit damage, offering loaners to any Volt owner whose car is threatened. Citing a need to drain power from damaged batteries, GM engineers are being dispatched to handle the depowering process within a day or so of a crash.
GM developed a process last July to drain the battery of a damaged Volt and that it is working to share the process and the needed equipment with repair shops, tow truck operators and others who handle or store vehicles after a severe crash.
Motor Trend magazine reports further tests were conducted on November 16, 17, and 18. The test November 16 did not result in a fire, but a temporary increase in the battery pack's temperature was recorded the next day.
The test on November 18 resulted in sparks and smoke coming from the battery pack shortly after it was rolled 180 degrees. The most troubling results came from a test on November 17, according to Motor Trend, where the battery pack caught on fire last Friday, November 25th. NHTSA is still analyzing the battery pack from the November 18 collision test.
A GM statement November 25 declared that the Volt "is safe and does not present undue risk as part of normal operation or immediately after a severe crash." Onstar is designed to send real-time updates to GM if a Volt is involved in a crash severe enough to damage the battery pack.
Despite these fires, NHTSA and GM have stated that not a single Volt, or other vehicle powered by lithium-ion batteries, has experienced a collision on public roads that has resulted in a fire.
The official report of the test is as follows: "On May 12, 2011, NHTSA performed a NCAP side pole impact test, followed by a post impact rollover test on a Chevrolet Volt. In connection with that testing, NHTSA has identified the potential for intrusion damage to the battery which may result in a substantial thermal reaction and fire. Twenty-one days after the May 12, 2011 testing, delayed thermal heating and pressure release resulted in a fire that consumed the Chevrolet Volt and three other vehicles in close proximity at the test facility. During the week of November 14, 2011, NHTSA performed follow-up battery-level tests to simulate the incident. NHTSA performed three tests simulating the mechanical damage to a battery pack observed from the first incident. Two of the three tests produced thermal events, including fire. Because of these test results, NHTSA has opened this investigation to examine the potential risks involved from intrusion damage to the battery in the Chevrolet Volt, in coordination with the agency's ongoing review of the emerging technology involved in electric vehicles."
If NHTSA's investigation determines the Volt's battery pack to be an unreasonable risk to safety, notice will be given to current Volt owners and the general public.
Read more: http://wot.motortrend.com/chevy-volt-investigated-by-nhtsa-for-post-crash-fire-risks-139423.html#ixzz1f1Aa0Mem
Actually, besides Michigan, another state with Republican leadership has the most to lose if the electric vehicle technology vaporizes: Indiana's Gov. Mitch Daniels brags his state is the industry leader, with a huge Ener1 battery plant backed by federal dollars slated for Indianapolis.
"Becoming the capital of the electric vehicle industry doesn't come cheap to taxpayers," writes conservative blogger Ronald Bailey.
Much of the $500 million lithium-ion battery plant Indiana project is financed by federal dollars through loans or grants.
"An investigation is launched into the possibility of battery fires occurring in crashes involving Government Motors' touted electric car," says the influential publication Investors Business Daily. "Industrial policy meets the law of unintended consequences."
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is the agency that has announced an investigation into the safety of electric cars using lithium batteries, particularly the Chevy Volt, after a battery fire occurred after a side-impact crash test.
NHTSA has asked other electric car manufacturers for information on how they would minimize fire risk in lithium-ion batteries. There is no indication of widespread risk, according to NHTSA.
This is a blow to the Obama administration since as part of his $787 billion stimulus package, a tax credit up to $7,500 is available to consumers as a way to encourage them to buy such cars.
The tax credit is needed because PHEVs cost up to $10,000 more than comparable conventional vehicles. In addition, the president pledged $2.4 billion of his stimulus package to jumpstart the electric car industry, including $1.5 billion to battery manufacturers, $500 million to other PHEV component makers, and $400 million to build infrastructure for charging the cars.
The fire didn't break out in the test vehicle until three weeks after the crash. GM says there have been no reports from consumers of battery problems, and the feds say they've been unable to duplicate the fire problem.
OK, so why make a big scary announcement until fears have been absolutely verified?
"But the cumulative road experience of the brand-new and poorly selling vehicle has been limited," writes Bailey.
Metal punctured the battery in the crash test and the Volt fire was severe enough to burn vehicles parked nearby, according to reports.
"If a lithium battery is pierced by steel, a chemical reaction will start raising the temperature and can result in a fire," according to Sandy Munro, president of Munro & Associates, a Troy, Mich., engineering consulting firm, in an interview with Bloomberg. "If the piercing is small, that reaction can take days or weeks to occur."
Investors Business Daily notes that recalls of vehicles for safety and mechanical issues often come after years of driving. "Our experience with cars powered by lithium batteries has been short and modest. Such batteries deliver the power and range electric vehicles require, but the current generation of lithium-ion batteries also has a tendency to overheat."
The newspaper charges that safety and environmental concerns have been used by the administration to kill or delay fossil fuel energy projects such as offshore drilling and the Keystone XL pipeline to bring Canadian tar sands oil and a minimum of 20,00 jobs to the U.S. market.
Will electric car technology receive the same level of scrutiny and concern? Is this specious probe a payback rooted in bureaucratic feuding between advocates of warring technologies?
The administration has a vested interest in electric cars, pitched as a centerpiece of its green energy policy. President Obama has pledged to have more than a million electric vehicles on the road by 2015. The Energy Department has provided about $2.5 billion in funding to battery companies, automakers and related firms in recent years.
Why is Michigan suddenly one of the leading job growth states in the nation?
The University of Michigan says the state's economy is two years into a recovery, the strongest growth has come from the high-wage component of the work force during this recovery, and job growth up until now has outpaced the nation.
"This year has been one of solid growth, by our estimate a gain of 62,600 jobs, and we do see the recovery continuing at least through 2013," states the university's economic research arm.
"We see a much more subdued pace of growth over the next two years. After a surge in job growth early in 2011, the pace has since moderated, and we are forecasting job gains during 2012 of 31,800, about half the number of jobs added this year, before ramping up a little to 45,000 job additions the following year.
"If our forecast is correct, the recovery period through 2013 would replenish only about 20 percent of the jobs lost from mid-2000 to the summer of 2009.
"So there is still a great deal of ground to make up. The industries that are the dominant job providers are manufacturing, professional and business services (including temporary help), and health services. The government sector continues to be the big job loser, even as the economy as a whole recovers."
As a result of renegotiated contracts with the United Auto Workers, wage scales for inexperienced workers have declined by about half to the $15 per hour range. This range is considered marginal to support a family, but some workers are happy with it since there is little choice for other, better paying jobs. ###
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