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NO ICE OR THIN ICE:
Great Lakes Coverage Near Historic Low

January 21, 2013       Leave a Comment
By: Dave Rogers

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Map shows decreasing ice cover by gradations on the Great Lakes.
 
George Leshkevich of the NOAA lab in Ann Arbor points to new ground penetrating radar ice measuring device on Canadian Coast Guard helicopter. (NOAA photo)

Ice cover on the Great Lakes is near record lows, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) research lab in Ann Arbor.

A composite map of the Great Lakes produced by NOAA's CoastWatch organization shows near-historic low ice coverage across the region.

"Previously, the lowest ice coverage year was 2002," CoastWatch manager George Leshkevich said, adding: 2012 came very close to 2002, and this year is looking very similar to last year." Lack of ice cover leads to increased water evaporation, a serious concern in light of already-low lake levels.

Great Lakes region residents have observed some winters choke the lakes with ice and others leave wide areas of open water, as occurred during the winter of 2012.

The amount of ice affects not only shipping and water and electric utilities, but also the region's weather.

NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor has monitored ice cover on the lakes for several decades. Their measurements have documented wide variations from winter to winter and made possible discoveries about climate links to variation in ice cover.

The following Q&A interview with Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab researchers George Leshkevich and Jia Wang gives insights on the effects of ice cover on the Great Lakes.

Also, see a new GLERL fact sheet on Great Lakes ice at http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/ice/ice.pdf (opens a pdf).

  • Why is the amount of winter ice cover on the Great Lakes important to the region?

    The amount of winter ice cover on the Great Lakes is important for several reasons, including:

    · Ice cover can reduce the amount of evaporation from the lakes, contributing to higher water levels;

    · Stable ice cover is needed for ecosystem health, and is especially important for some fish species spawning and recruitment;

    · Reduced ice cover can contribute to increased lake effect snowfall;

    · Reduced ice cover can contribute to increased water temperature;

    · Reduced ice cover can lead to more coastal erosion;

    · Ice cover is important to the economy, impacting navigation and recreation;

    2. Does the amount of ice on the Great Lakes vary much from winter to winter?

    The amount of ice cover on the Great Lakes can vary widely from winter to winter. For example, over the past two decades, the maximum percent ice concentration on Lake Erie varied from approximately 100 percent in 1996 to only 4.4 percent in 1998.

    How do climate patterns like El Nino and the North Atlantic Oscillation affect Great Lakes ice cover?

    The combination of these climate patterns, ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation) and NAO/AO (Arctic Oscillation), can significantly affect lake ice cover by influencing the circulation of warm and cold air. Generally speaking, the positive or warm phase of the NAO causes less lake ice, and the negative or cold phase causes more ice. Lake ice response to ENSO is a bit more complicated, and the interaction between the two climate patterns can make lake ice hard to predict. The combined effects of ENSO and NAO on temperature and lake ice are mapped by NOAA.

    The map, known as the Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis, is a composite of data taken from NOAA satellites orbiting the earth's poles and radar scans of the lakes by the National Ice Center. The resulting image shows surface water temperature and ice coverage, important data for region scientists, fishermen and boaters. The map's data is updated daily.

    The map began as a tool to help hydrodynamic modelers who needed daily temperature readings across the entire Great Lakes region, according to Leshkevich. It has since been used by fishermen and charter boat captains in order to find warmer areas of the lakes where fish gather, as well as by ecologists studying temperature-sensitive species like the zebra mussel.

    "It's a fairly accurate product," Leshkevich said. "We've validated it against data buoys in the lakes and against visual data we've been able to get on clear days, and it's always been very close."

    According to Leshkevich, inaccuracies can result from cloud cover and solar warming of the lakes during the day. Many of these issues have been reduced by the introduction of more satellites into NOAA's system. Originally only two satellites were positioned to retrieve data. Now there are five.

    ###

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    Dave Rogers

    Dave Rogers is a former editorial writer for the Bay City Times and a widely read,
    respected journalist/writer in and around Bay City.
    (Contact Dave Via Email at carraroe@aol.com)

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