GAY MARRIAGE: Study Shows 2004 Michigan Ban Vote Helped Bush Get Elected
Voters Attitudes Have Shifted Dramatically in 10 Years, Polls Show
March 29, 2015
By: Dave Rogers
There no longer appears to be community consensus locally against same-sex marriage.
George W. Bush was helped to become President in 2004 by gay marriage bans on the ballot in key states, an academic study shows.
The issue has cropped up recently in mid-Michigan, with a state representative defending his criticism of a newspaper editor on the basis of the public support for the ban more than 10 years ago.
While the state, and both Midland and Bay counties, voted for the ban in 2004, in the ensuing decade attitudes shifted dramatically. There no longer appears to be community consensus locally against same-sex marriage.
A poll a year ago by EPIC-MRA showed a virtual tie, 47 percent supporting gay marriage and 46 percent against. In 2013 the ratio was 51 percent for and 41 percent against.
The story of how the issue became entwined with presidential politics has been studied by four academics from various parts of the country. Their report, entitled "Did Gay Marriage Elect George W. Bush?" The report is posted by Michigan State University at
http://polisci.msu.edu/sppc2005/papers/fripm/dtsp_sppc05.pd
"Studies demonstrate that candidates and party officials view ballot initiative campaigns as an indirect means to increase turnout for "their" candidates" and also as 'wedge' issues forcing opponents to divert resources away from other opportunities.
In 2004, the study notes that social conservative activists and state legislators placed anti-gay marriage questions on the ballot in several states -- five of which were considered "battleground" states early in the presidential campaign.
Every measure passed, receiving 70 percent support on average. In Michigan, the constitutional ban passed with 2,698,077 (59%) in favor and 1,904,319 (41%) opposed.
Although the presidential candidates dedicated little time to overt discussion of the topic, gay marriage emerged as a galvanizing issue early in the 2004 election cycle.
Citing a Massachusetts court ruling and actions of the City and County of San Francisco, George W. Bush promoted the need for a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage in February 2004.
Over the summer, the US Senate rejected the proposed amendment, but the issue was kept alive in over a dozen states where efforts were underway to place anti-gay marriage amendments to state constitutions on state ballots.
Measures banning gay marriage were eventually placed on ballots in 13 states -- with voters in 11 states presented with the question in November, in
conjunction with the General Election.