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East arm of Grand Traverse Bay shows how low water impacts a once highly desirable tourist attraction. (Michigan State University photo)

SAY WHAT? "Experts" Gush Over Lakes Huron-Michigan Rise, But Take a Look!

IJC Has 'Adaptive Management Plan' Proposal to Address Climate Change

November 22, 2013       Leave a Comment
By: Dave Rogers

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EVERYBODY KNOWS THAT: Water level extremes can have profound effects on commercial shipping, hydropower generation, recreational boating, coastal communities, tourism, municipal and industrial water uses, and wetlands, fisheries and wildlife. Because the climate is changing and our ability to alter lake levels through lake regulation is limited, a broader, more comprehensive approach to manage the impacts of changing lake levels is needed.

The headlines are gushing about the rise in Lakes Huron-Michigan by a foot or more, some news sources reporting a 20-inch hike.

But its a reverse boy cries wolf story; the lakes are still short of historic levels by about a foot and a half.

The New York Times, the Detroit Free Press, the wire services -- all have just discovered a huge rise in water levels that is almost totally imperceptible here, where the water meets the shore.

Take a look at the shore of Saginaw Bay and the lake stretching north: it's still way lower than fisherfolk and boaters would like.

That's because, despite the reported rise, we're still in the dumps with historic low water.

Docks along the river are so high a boater would have to be a jumping jack to get off the deck, or perhaps use a ladder.

An accurate report comes from Wisconsin Public Radio: "The Lake Michigan-Lake Huron combination hit record low levels as late as last January. Since then a lot of precipitation have raised water levels by about 11 inches; as of last month, levels were still 17 inches below the average level for October."

Keith Kompoltowicz of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says he expects another very small rise by next April and no near-term return to record lows.

Well, Mr. Kompoltowicz, the record lows are still with us, wouldn't any reasonable observer conclude?

The Army Corps expert expects water levels to remain about 16 inches below the long-term average, stating incongruously: "Even with very dry conditions we don't see the threat of any new record lows on Michigan or Huron over the next six months."

Kompoltowicz said last month Lake Superior was two inches below average for the month, but 13 inches above a year ago -- about what is expected for the next six months. He says that projection is based on weather projections and other data.

Kompoltowicz says the forecast could change rapidly, and that November has been very wet across the Lake Superior basin. Federal scientists say long- term water levels could also be affected by whether higher evaporation rates of recent years continue.

Where did the water go? Will it ever come back?

The answer may be NO! Unfortunately.

National Geographic says: "The answer is that it simply evaporated. The surface of the Great Lakes acts like an enormous evaporating pan under the right conditions."

EVAPORATION--

Lack of ice cover in 2011-12 and record-breaking warm temperatures created high rates of evaporation on Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan. These lakes had already been fluctuating below average levels for 15 years. A severe drought prevented the lakes from replenishing themselves, and water levels reached record lows.

DREDGING--

Past dredging and erosion in the St. Clair River that resulted in a 10- to 15-inch Lowering of water levels. These historic losses were never offset with mitigation measures. The only dredging that occurs today is to keep rivers at authorized depths for navigation.

MYTH CREATION--

Concludes NatGeo's Lisa Borre in Water Currents:

"Even though this is well documented by the agencies that have been monitoring water levels, going back to 1918, various theories about possible causes abound, especially online. Some of these theories and misleading facts get repeated so often, they become mythic."

She also debunks every kooky theory out there, including that too much water is being taken by bottled water companies, that China is slurping up water into holds of ships and taking it east, and that water is being diverted to the Mississippi River through Chicago.

There is one theory that perhaps makes more sense than all the others -- EXCESS EVAPORATION CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE!

A recent report by the International Joint Commission states:

"Climate change poses new challenges for adapting to fluctuating Great Lakes water levels. Although the future is not certain, increases in temperature and alterations in patterns of precipitation are likely to affect water levels in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River system. There is strong evidence that in the future we will likely experience more extreme water levels -- both high and low 'that are outside the historical range experienced over the past century.'"

Is there an answer? Perhaps: Read the IJC's Adaptive Management Plan at http://www.ijc.org/en_/amplan But don't be surprised if you are disappointed; no magic bullet is available and the IJC basically says we can only monitor the situation. But we already suspected that, too.

There really is no broader, comprehensive approach other than GET USED TO IT. ###

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Dave Rogers

Dave Rogers is a former editorial writer for the Bay City Times and a widely read,
respected journalist/writer in and around Bay City.
(Contact Dave Via Email at carraroe@aol.com)

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