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Issue 1561 November 25, 2012
(Prior Story)   Local News ArTicle 07598   (Next Story)


Consumer confidence is at its highest level in five years.

CONGRESSIONAL GRINCH: Will He Steal Christmas? Asks U-M Survey Chief

Survey Forecasts Continued Michigan Economic Growth

November 24, 2012       Leave a Comment
By: Dave Rogers

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Consumer confidence is at its highest level in five years, according to University of Michigan economist Richard Curtin, director of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The Surveys, conducted by the U-M Institute for Social Research (ISR), have been monitoring consumer attitudes and expectations for over 60 years.

Anticipated gains in the economy meant that consumers held much more favorable job expectations, wrote the U-M's Diane Swanbrow.

The survey recorded the most favorable outlook for the unemployment rate since 1984.

Nearly one-in-three consumers expected a lower unemployment rate during the year ahead in both the October and November 2012 surveys.

Confidence was largely unchanged last month, the ISR noted, commenting:

"But when asked to identify any recent economic news, consumers more frequently made unfavorable references to potential changes in future federal tax and spending programs as well as the inability of the political parties to reach a timely settlement."

"Will the Congressional Grinch steal Christmas?" the U-M survey report was headlined.

There have only been five other surveys during the past half century in which more consumers spontaneously mentioned their uncertainty about government policies, according to Curtin.

Past occurrences were also related to taxes, spending, and the federal deficit: Clinton's deficit reduction program in 1993 and last summer's debt ceiling debate which prompted a drop in the Sentiment Index to 55.8, the fourth lowest level recorded in the long history of the surveys.

While consumers remain optimistic, that optimism is contingent on the promise of no higher taxes, except on the wealthy.

"The gains in confidence ended in late November as consumers became more uncertain about when and how the fiscal cliff with be bridged," said Curtin. "While they had anticipated a last minute settlement, some consumers are beginning to doubt whether that will happen before higher tax rates take effect in January.

"While a resolution just before year-end could reverse any future spending declines, it would nonetheless diminish holiday spending. Moreover, consumers do not make a distinction between federal income and payroll taxes, so any settlement that excludes an extension of the payroll tax cut could reduce optimism starting in early January."

Growth in the latter part of 2012 has been particularly sluggish, but U-M surveys see some pickup in the economy going into 2013 and continuing through 2014.

The ISR predicts:

"Job growth accelerates from its 0.5 percent pace over the last three quarters of 2012 to 1.2 percent at the beginning of 2013, holding in that neighborhood throughout most of the year before bumping up its tempo to settle in around 1.5 percent during 2014.

"For comparison, the average job growth recorded over the first two years of the recovery was 1.6 percent.

"This pattern of growth translates into progressively increasing yearly job gains: 43,400 during 2012, 49,600 during 2013, and 61,500 in 2014."

The survey also reported: "The pattern is consistent with a U.S. economy that we see accelerating over the next two years, but with growth remaining moderate, and a slower rate of increase in Detroit Three light vehicle sales moving forward.

"As in the past three years, the top two job producers over the forecast period are manufacturing and professional and business services.

"If our forecast proves correct, the recovery period would extend to five years, replenishing one-third of the jobs lost from mid-2000 to the end of 2009."

###

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Prior Article

February 10, 2020
by: Rachel Reh
Family Winter Fun Fest is BACC Hot Spot for 2/10/2020
Next Article

February 2, 2020
by: Kathy Rupert-Mathews
MOVIE REVIEW: "Just Mercy" ... You Will Shed Tears, or at Least You Should
Agree? or Disagree?


Dave Rogers

Dave Rogers is a former editorial writer for the Bay City Times and a widely read,
respected journalist/writer in and around Bay City.
(Contact Dave Via Email at carraroe@aol.com)

More from Dave Rogers

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	  and tLOG_PublicationID = 'mbC'
	  and tLOG_Date			 = '2021-10-19'
P3_LogThesePubs (Datasource=MyBayCity, Time=15ms, Records=6) in D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\Scripts\P3_V2\P3V3-LogBox.cfm @ 13:39:22.022
SELECT *
	FROM P3_tPublications
	ORDER BY PUB_PublicationID
P3_LogThesePubs (Datasource=MyBayCity, Time=0ms, Records=6) in D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\Scripts\P3_V2\P3V3-LogBox2.cfm @ 13:39:22.022
SELECT *
	FROM P3_tPublications
	ORDER BY PUB_PublicationID
P3_Test30dayLog (Datasource=MyBayCity, Time=0ms, Records=0) in D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\Scripts\P3_V2\P3V3-LogBox2.cfm @ 13:39:22.022
SELECT * FROM P3_tLog
		WHERE tLOG_RecordType = 'P'
		  and tLOG_PublicationID = 'Frankenmuth'
		  and tLOG_Date = '2021-10-18'
P3_Pub30DayLog (Datasource=MyBayCity, Time=0ms, Records=0) in D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\Scripts\P3_V2\P3V3-LogBox2.cfm @ 13:39:22.022
SELECT * FROM P3_tLog
			WHERE tLOG_RecordType = 'P'
			  and tLOG_PublicationID = 'Frankenmuth'
			  and tLOG_Date >= '2021-09-17'
P3_Test30dayLog (Datasource=MyBayCity, Time=0ms, Records=0) in D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\Scripts\P3_V2\P3V3-LogBox2.cfm @ 13:39:22.022
SELECT * FROM P3_tLog
		WHERE tLOG_RecordType = 'P'
		  and tLOG_PublicationID = 'Freeland'
		  and tLOG_Date = '2021-10-18'
P3_Pub30DayLog (Datasource=MyBayCity, Time=16ms, Records=0) in D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\Scripts\P3_V2\P3V3-LogBox2.cfm @ 13:39:22.022
SELECT * FROM P3_tLog
			WHERE tLOG_RecordType = 'P'
			  and tLOG_PublicationID = 'Freeland'
			  and tLOG_Date >= '2021-09-17'
P3_Test30dayLog (Datasource=MyBayCity, Time=0ms, Records=0) in D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\Scripts\P3_V2\P3V3-LogBox2.cfm @ 13:39:22.022
SELECT * FROM P3_tLog
		WHERE tLOG_RecordType = 'P'
		  and tLOG_PublicationID = 'Gower'
		  and tLOG_Date = '2021-10-18'
P3_Pub30DayLog (Datasource=MyBayCity, Time=0ms, Records=0) in D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\Scripts\P3_V2\P3V3-LogBox2.cfm @ 13:39:22.022
SELECT * FROM P3_tLog
			WHERE tLOG_RecordType = 'P'
			  and tLOG_PublicationID = 'Gower'
			  and tLOG_Date >= '2021-09-17'
P3_Test30dayLog (Datasource=MyBayCity, Time=0ms, Records=0) in D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\Scripts\P3_V2\P3V3-LogBox2.cfm @ 13:39:22.022
SELECT * FROM P3_tLog
		WHERE tLOG_RecordType = 'P'
		  and tLOG_PublicationID = 'MBC'
		  and tLOG_Date = '2021-10-18'
P3_Pub30DayLog (Datasource=MyBayCity, Time=0ms, Records=0) in D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\Scripts\P3_V2\P3V3-LogBox2.cfm @ 13:39:22.022
SELECT * FROM P3_tLog
			WHERE tLOG_RecordType = 'P'
			  and tLOG_PublicationID = 'MBC'
			  and tLOG_Date >= '2021-09-17'
P3_Test30dayLog (Datasource=MyBayCity, Time=0ms, Records=0) in D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\Scripts\P3_V2\P3V3-LogBox2.cfm @ 13:39:22.022
SELECT * FROM P3_tLog
		WHERE tLOG_RecordType = 'P'
		  and tLOG_PublicationID = 'MTCN'
		  and tLOG_Date = '2021-10-18'
P3_Pub30DayLog (Datasource=MyBayCity, Time=0ms, Records=0) in D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\Scripts\P3_V2\P3V3-LogBox2.cfm @ 13:39:22.022
SELECT * FROM P3_tLog
			WHERE tLOG_RecordType = 'P'
			  and tLOG_PublicationID = 'MTCN'
			  and tLOG_Date >= '2021-09-17'
P3_Test30dayLog (Datasource=MyBayCity, Time=0ms, Records=0) in D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\Scripts\P3_V2\P3V3-LogBox2.cfm @ 13:39:22.022
SELECT * FROM P3_tLog
		WHERE tLOG_RecordType = 'P'
		  and tLOG_PublicationID = 'Pinconning'
		  and tLOG_Date = '2021-10-18'
P3_Pub30DayLog (Datasource=MyBayCity, Time=0ms, Records=0) in D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\Scripts\P3_V2\P3V3-LogBox2.cfm @ 13:39:22.022
SELECT * FROM P3_tLog
			WHERE tLOG_RecordType = 'P'
			  and tLOG_PublicationID = 'Pinconning'
			  and tLOG_Date >= '2021-09-17'
P3_PubCurrentLog (Datasource=MyBayCity, Time=0ms, Records=0) in D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\Scripts\P3_V2\P3V3-LogBox.cfm @ 13:39:22.022
SELECT *
	FROM P3_tLog
	WHERE tLOG_RecordType = 'P'
	  and tLOG_Date = '2021-10-18'


Scope Variables

CGI Variables:
AUTH_PASSWORD=
AUTH_TYPE=
AUTH_USER=
CERT_COOKIE=
CERT_FLAGS=
CERT_ISSUER=
CERT_KEYSIZE=
CERT_SECRETKEYSIZE=
CERT_SERIALNUMBER=
CERT_SERVER_ISSUER=
CERT_SERVER_SUBJECT=
CERT_SUBJECT=
CF_TEMPLATE_PATH=D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\scripts\p3_v2\P3V3-0200.cfm
CONTENT_LENGTH=0
CONTENT_TYPE=
CONTEXT_PATH=
GATEWAY_INTERFACE=CGI/1.1
HTTPS=off
HTTPS_KEYSIZE=
HTTPS_SECRETKEYSIZE=
HTTPS_SERVER_ISSUER=
HTTPS_SERVER_SUBJECT=
HTTP_ACCEPT=text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,*/*;q=0.8
HTTP_ACCEPT_ENCODING=br,gzip
HTTP_ACCEPT_LANGUAGE=en-US,en;q=0.5
HTTP_CONNECTION=Keep-Alive
HTTP_COOKIE=
HTTP_HOST=www.mybaycity.com
HTTP_REFERER=
HTTP_URL=/scripts/P3_V2/P3V3-0200.cfm?P3_NewspaperID=1561&P3_articleID=07598
HTTP_USER_AGENT=CCBot/2.0 (https://commoncrawl.org/faq/)
LOCAL_ADDR=192.168.162.152
PATH_INFO=
PATH_TRANSLATED=D:\Websites\bcra-mlscom\mybaycity.com\scripts\p3_v2\P3V3-0200.cfm
QUERY_STRING=P3_NewspaperID=1561&P3_articleID=07598
REMOTE_ADDR=35.172.217.174
REMOTE_HOST=35.172.217.174
REMOTE_USER=
REQUEST_METHOD=GET
SCRIPT_NAME=/scripts/P3_V2/P3V3-0200.cfm
SERVER_NAME=www.mybaycity.com
SERVER_PORT=80
SERVER_PORT_SECURE=0
SERVER_PROTOCOL=HTTP/1.1
SERVER_SOFTWARE=Microsoft-IIS/10.0
WEB_SERVER_API=
Cookie Variables:
CFID=9597112
CFTOKEN=fc3a4200d46a08c0-0053D051-CF1D-F98A-EA02888AD9E84A1E
Session Variables:
authortype=unknown
cfid=9597112
cftoken=fc3a4200d46a08c0-0053D051-CF1D-F98A-EA02888AD9E84A1E
login_role=x
login_status=firsttime
login_type=reader
login_userid=Default
loginid=Default
p3_priornewspaperdate=2012-11-18 00:00:00.0
p3_priornewspaperid=1560
p3v2_home=www.mybaycity.com
p3v2_privdiag=0
p3v2_publication=mbC
sessionid=P3V2SYS_9597112_fc3a4200d46a08c0-0053D051-CF1D-F98A-EA02888AD9E84A1E
urltoken=CFID=9597112&CFTOKEN=fc3a4200d46a08c0-0053D051-CF1D-F98A-EA02888AD9E84A1E
URL Parameters:
P3_NewspaperID=1561
P3_articleID=07598
Debug Rendering Time: 16 ms